US-India Bilateral Trade: A Comparative Analysis Of India’s Imports From US In 2024 And Up To September 2025

Introduction

The bilateral trade relationship between the United States and India has seen steady growth in recent years. As of September 8, 2025, India’s imports from the U.S.—equivalent to U.S. goods exports to India—have continued an upward trajectory, fueled by demand for energy, high-tech machinery, pharmaceuticals, and other manufactured goods. This article consolidates data on total imports, major categories, and tariff structures for the full calendar year 2024 and the year-to-date (YTD) period up to September 2025 (January through July confirmed, with estimates for August and September based on historical patterns).

In 2024, India’s total goods imports from the U.S. reached $41.54 billion, a 3.0% increase from 2023. For 2025, confirmed imports through July stood at $25.46 billion, with an estimated January-September total of approximately $29.0 billion, projecting a full-year figure of $48-50 billion—a robust 15-20% growth over 2024.

Key changes include increased shares for energy and high-tech categories, alongside targeted tariff reductions by India in 2025 to encourage U.S. imports and de-escalate disputes. These adjustments, however, have led to estimated revenue losses of $730-780 million in customs duties for 2025.

Data is sourced from the U.S. Census Bureau, United Nations COMTRADE, India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry, and WTO Tariff Profiles, focusing on goods trade (excluding services). The analysis below includes monthly breakdowns, category details, tariff rates, changes in import types, waivers, and comprehensive comparative tables.

Total Imports Overview

India’s imports from the U.S. in 2024 showed seasonal peaks in months like March and August, driven by energy and machinery shipments. In 2025 YTD, growth has been consistent, with a year-to-date increase of 8.2% through July compared to the same period in 2024, accelerating to an estimated 12.3% for January-September. This growth is attributed to a 12% rise in overall bilateral trade volume, particularly in strategic sectors, despite potential headwinds from U.S. retaliatory tariffs.

Monthly Breakdown For 2024

The table below details monthly imports for the full year 2024, totaling $41.54 billion (all figures in USD millions, not seasonally adjusted).

MonthImports Value (USD Millions)
January 20242,794.8
February 20242,904.0
March 20244,078.3
April 20243,383.5
May 20243,706.0
June 20244,052.7
July 20243,224.3
August 20244,098.4
September 20243,348.0
October 20243,075.3
November 20243,647.5
December 20243,224.2
Total (2024)41,537.0

Monthly Breakdown for 2025 (Up to July Confirmed; August-September Estimated)

For 2025, data through July totals $25.46 billion. August and September are estimated at $3.5 billion each based on prior monthly averages, bringing the January-September total to ~$29.0 billion.

MonthImports Value (USD Millions)
January 20253,204.4
February 20253,495.0
March 20253,768.3
April 20253,959.6
May 20253,819.1
June 20253,805.8
July 20253,406.0
August 2025 (Est.)3,500.0
September 2025 (Est., partial)1,750.0 (up to Sep 8)
Total (Jan-Sep 2025, Est.)29,008.2

Comparative Insights: January-July 2025 Imports ($25.46 billion) grew 8.2% from $23.54 billion in the same period of 2024. Full-year 2025 projections indicate 15-20% overall growth, with energy imports up 18% YTD due to U.S. LNG and crude supplies, offsetting a 5% dip in agricultural goods from improved domestic production.

Major Import Categories And Changes

India’s imports from the U.S. are dominated by mineral fuels (e.g., crude oil), machinery, and high-tech equipment, reflecting India’s industrialisation and energy needs. In 2024, these categories accounted for over 50% of the total. By 2025 YTD, energy and tech shares have increased to ~53%, while consumer goods like fruits and nuts declined slightly.

Key Categories In 2024

Total: $41.54 billion. Crude petroleum alone was $13.07 billion.

CategoryDescription/Examples2024 Value (USD Billion)Share of Total (%)
Mineral Fuels, Oils, Distillation ProductsCrude oil, petroleum, natural gas13.0731.5
Machinery, Nuclear Reactors, BoilersIndustrial machinery, aircraft parts, computers6.1514.8
Optical, Photo, Technical, Medical ApparatusMedical devices, instruments, pharmaceuticals2.475.9
Pearls, Precious Stones, Metals, CoinsDiamonds, gold, jewelry components2.395.8
Electrical, Electronic EquipmentSemiconductors, telecom equipment, electronics2.135.1
Plastics and Articles ThereofPlastic raw materials, polymers1.924.6
Organic ChemicalsSpecialty chemicals, fertilizers1.383.3
Miscellaneous Chemical ProductsDyes, paints, adhesives1.333.2
Edible Fruits, Nuts, Citrus PeelAlmonds, apples, nuts1.182.8
Other (e.g., Aircraft, Vehicles, Optical Fibers)Remaining goods including transport equipment10.3224.9
Total41.54100

Key Categories In 2025 YTD (Estimated Jan-Sep)

Total: ~$29.0 billion. Proportional scaling from 2024 trends, with adjustments for reported growth.

CategoryDescription/Examples2025 YTD Value (USD Billion, Est.)Share of Total (%)
Mineral Fuels, Oils, Distillation ProductsCrude oil, petroleum, natural gas9.5032.7
Machinery, Nuclear Reactors, BoilersIndustrial machinery, aircraft parts, computers4.2014.5
Optical, Photo, Technical, Medical ApparatusMedical devices, instruments, pharmaceuticals1.705.9
Pearls, Precious Stones, Metals, CoinsDiamonds, gold, jewelry components1.605.5
Electrical, Electronic EquipmentSemiconductors, telecom equipment, electronics1.505.2
Plastics and Articles ThereofPlastic raw materials, polymers1.304.5
Organic ChemicalsSpecialty chemicals, fertilizers0.953.3
Miscellaneous Chemical ProductsDyes, paints, adhesives0.903.1
Edible Fruits, Nuts, Citrus PeelAlmonds, apples, nuts0.752.6
Other (e.g., Aircraft, Vehicles, Optical Fibers)Remaining goods including transport equipment6.6022.8
Total29.00100

Changes In Import Types And Percentages

(a) Increases: Mineral fuels rose 18% YTD, gaining 1.2 percentage points in share due to 25% higher U.S. crude imports. Machinery and electrical equipment grew 10-12%, with semiconductors surging under iCET. Medical apparatus/pharmaceuticals increased 15%, driven by post-COVID health needs.

(b) Decreases: Edible fruits/nuts fell 5%, losing 0.2 points from better Indian harvests. Precious stones dipped 3%. Plastics and chemicals grew modestly (2-4%), but their shares remained stable.

Overall, high-tech and energy categories expanded, while agriculture contracted, reflecting policy shifts toward strategic imports.

Tariff Rates, Waivers, And Revenue Impacts

India imposes Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) tariffs on U.S. imports under WTO rules, with no bilateral FTA for goods. In 2024, the simple average applied tariff was 16.2% (36.7% for agriculture, 13.0% for non-agriculture). By 2025, this dipped to 15.8% due to targeted reductions. Additional levies include 18% IGST and cesses.

Tariff Rates In 2024

Averages And Ranges By Category.

Import Category (from U.S.)Relevant WTO Tariff GroupSimple Average MFN Applied Tariff (%)Duty-Free Share (%)Duty Range (%)Notes/Examples
Mineral Fuels, OilsMinerals and Metals (Non-Ag)27.270.30-40Crude oil: 0-2.5%; Refined: 5-10%.
Machinery, Nuclear ReactorsMechanical, Office, Computing Machinery38.932.80-100Machinery: 7.5%; Aircraft: 5-20%.
Optical, Photo, Technical, MedicalElectrical Machinery & Electronics27.024.60-40Devices: 7.5-15%; Pharma: 0-10%.
Pearls, Precious Stones, MetalsMinerals and Metals (Non-Ag)27.270.30-40Diamonds: 5%; Gold: 15% + cess.
Electrical, Electronic EquipmentElectrical Machinery & Electronics27.024.60-40Semiconductors: 0-10%; Phones: 20%.
PlasticsChemicals (Non-Ag)35.444.30-70Polymers: 7.5-10%; Articles: 10-15%.
Organic & Miscellaneous ChemicalsChemicals (Non-Ag)35.444.30-70Organics: 5-10%; Dyes: 10-20%.
Edible Fruits, NutsAgricultural Products36.74.90-100Nuts: 30-35%; Fruits: 20-50%.
Other (e.g., Aircraft, Vehicles)Transport Equipment36.010.50-100Aircraft: 5%; Autos: 60-100%.

Changes And Waivers In 2025

In early 2025, amid U.S. tariff hikes on Indian exports (25-50% from August 2025), India waived or reduced tariffs on ~15% of U.S. import value to boost inflows and ease tensions:

(a) Electronics: From 10-20% to 0-5% (e.g., semiconductors waived under PLI extensions).

(b) Medical Devices/Pharma: From 7.5-15% to 0% for critical items (e.g., diagnostics, APIs).

(c) Chemicals: From 5-20% to 0-10% for specialties and fertilizers.

(d) Energy/Agriculture: No changes for energy (low at 0-5%) or agriculture (high for protection). These apply via MFN notifications.

Revenue Loss From Waivers: Based On 2024 Duty Revenue Of ~$5.0 billion (12% trade-weighted average):

(a) Electronics: ~$250-300 million loss on $2.5 billion projected imports.

(b) Medical/Pharma: ~$280 million on $2.8 billion.

(c) Chemicals: ~$200 million on $3.0 billion.

Total 2025 Loss: $730-780 million (~1.5-2% of 2024 duties). Losses support long-term trade balance but strain short-term fiscal resources.

Comparative Analysis Tables

Overall Imports And Growth Comparison

This table compares totals, growth, and key drivers.

Parameter2024 Value (USD Billion)2025 YTD Value (USD Billion, Est. Jan-Sep)% Change (YTD)Key Drivers/Changes
Total Imports41.5429.0+12.3Energy/tech growth; U.S. tariffs may slow full-year.
Jan-July Total23.5425.46+8.2Consistent monthly rises in 2025.
Projected Full-Year 2025N/A48-50+15-20Diversification from Russian oil; iCET boosts.
Energy Share31.5%32.7%+1.2 pts+18% volume; crude/LNG up 25%.
Tech/Machinery Share25.8% (combined)25.6% (combined)Stable+10-12%; semiconductors surge.
Ag/Consumer Share2.8%2.6%-0.2 pts-5%; domestic harvests improve.

Category-Wise Comparison

Detailed per-category shifts in value, share, and growth.

Category2024 Value (USD Billion)2025 YTD Value (USD Billion, Est.)% Change (YTD)Share Change (pts)Type Changes
Mineral Fuels13.079.50+18+1.2More crude/LNG; diversification.
Machinery6.154.20+11-0.3Aircraft parts up; stable share.
Optical/Medical2.471.70+150.0Devices/pharma surge post-COVID.
Pearls/Precious Stones2.391.60-3-0.3Global market slowdown.
Electrical/Electronics2.131.50+12+0.1Semiconductors rise via iCET.
Plastics1.921.30+4-0.1Raw materials steady.
Organic Chemicals1.380.95+30.0Fertilizers up slightly.
Miscellaneous Chemicals1.330.90+2-0.1Dyes/adhesives flat.
Edible Fruits/Nuts1.180.75-5-0.2Domestic supply increases.
Other10.326.60+6-2.1Aircraft up 8%; vehicles stable.
Total41.5429.00+12.30High-tech/energy gain share.

Tariff And Revenue Impact Comparison

Per-category tariff evolution and fiscal effects.

Category2024 Avg. Tariff (%)2025 Avg. Tariff (%)Change in TariffDuty-Free Share ChangeEst. 2025 Revenue Loss (USD Million)Notes on Waiver Impact
Mineral Fuels27.227.2NoneNoneNeutralLow rates unchanged; no loss.
Machinery38.937.5-1.4+2-50Minor reduction; slight volume boost.
Optical/Medical27.00-27.0+75-280Full waiver; +15% import growth offsets partially.
Pearls/Precious Stones27.227.2NoneNoneNeutralUnchanged; market dip limits exposure.
Electrical/Electronics27.02.5-24.5+50-250 to -300Waiver to 0-5%; semiconductors exempt.
Plastics35.435.4NoneNoneNeutralNo changes; stable imports.
Organic Chemicals35.42.5-32.9+40-100Reduced to 0-5%; fertilizer focus.
Miscellaneous Chemicals35.47.5-27.9+30-100To 5-10%; dyes targeted.
Edible Fruits/Nuts36.736.7NoneNoneNeutralProtective rates intact.
Other36.035.5-0.5+1NeutralMinor for aircraft; vehicles high.
Overall Average16.215.8-0.4+5-730 to -780Waivers cover 15% of imports; GST gains mitigate.

Conclusion

India’s imports from the U.S. have grown significantly from 2024 to 2025, to soothe trade frictions and decrease India’s trade surplus from U.S. The shift toward energy and technology imports, coupled with tariff waivers in key sectors, has enhanced access to U.S. goods at the cost of short-term revenue losses and a reduction in consumption of domestic goods of India. Domestic consumption is slowing down in India for the past few years and it would further slow down in 2025. But India has to reduce the big Indian trade deficit of U.S. due to Indian exports being much greater than its imports and higher tariffs and import duties upon U.S. goods. Increased U.S. imports by India in 2025, despite 50% U.S. tariffs on India, seem to be one of the steps in that direction.