{"id":186,"date":"2025-09-17T19:14:11","date_gmt":"2025-09-17T18:14:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/odrindia.in\/economy\/?p=186"},"modified":"2025-09-17T19:16:01","modified_gmt":"2025-09-17T18:16:01","slug":"indias-economic-condition-amid-trade-tensions-and-social-disparities-in-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/odrindia.in\/economy\/2025\/09\/17\/indias-economic-condition-amid-trade-tensions-and-social-disparities-in-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"India’s Economic Condition Amid Trade Tensions And Social Disparities In 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As of September 17, 2025, the provisional data from the Ministry of Commerce, RBI, US Census Bureau, and BEA indicate cumulative US-bound exports of india at $73 billion (goods $45 billion, services $28 billion) and imports at $37 billion, yielding a $36 billion surplus\u2014a decline from pre-tariff projections due to a 43% merchandise drop. Globally, exports reach $419.2 billion, imports $469.8 billion, with a $50.6 billion deficit despite services surpluses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tariffs are projected to reduce GDP growth<\/a> by 0.5\u20131% in 2025. It would result in a reduction in the GDP growth rate by 0.5\u20131 percentage points. The baseline projected growth rate of India is 6-6.5% in 2025-26 without tariffs. This means the new projected growth rate of India would be 5\u20135.5% in 2025-26 due to tariffs alone. It does not mean a multiplicative reduction like taking 0.5\u20131% of the 6.5% growth rate (which would only shave off a very minor and insignificant portion of GDP). <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In economics, projections like this always describe impacts on growth rates in terms of percentage points added or subtracted\u2014it’s a common point of confusion between “percent” and “percentage points.”<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

With monthly US exports falling from $11.19 billion in March to $6.5\u20137.0 billion in September, risking 1\u20132 million direct manufacturing job losses and 3\u20135 million indirect impacts, elevating unemployment to 6.5%. Stock markets declined 8\u201310% in late August, erasing $500\u2013700 billion in capitalization, with Nifty 50 at -0.7% YTD and Sensex at -0.2%. Rupee depreciation (1 USD = Rs. 88, -5% YoY) enhances export competitiveness (+2\u20133% volumes, Rs. 7,392\u201311,088 billion) but widens import costs (Rs. 880\u20131,320 billion deficit expansion) and curbs consumption (PFCE growth to 6.0% in Q4 FY25, dragging FY26 by 0.8\u20131.2 points). Data distinguishes pre-tariff\/exemption (April 1\u2013September 7) and post (September 8\u201330) periods, with NTBs threatening 15\u201320% of services exports ($6 billion half-year loss). This growth has not been equitable<\/strong><\/a>, with large segments remaining vulnerable<\/strong><\/a> to poverty and food insecurity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Impact Of US Restrictions: Pre- vs. Post-Tariff\/Exemption And Potential Losses<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tariffs severely affect textiles, gems, apparel, and chemicals (30\u201370% volume loss), spurring April front-loading (+18% YoY) but causing a 14% goods dip in August ($6.86 billion). Exemptions shift 15\u201340% market share to rivals, endangering 50,000+ MSMEs. Services face NTBs like 20% H-1B reductions and taxes, impacting IT\/BPO (50\u201357% US-bound, $225 billion FY25). Annual affected goods loss: $41.6 billion (from $60.2 billion); half-year: ~$20.8 billion. Total potential loss: $27.3 billion (goods $21.3 billion, services $6 billion), plus indirect employment costs (Rs. 1,760 billion in lost wages at Rs. 88\/USD).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Category<\/th>Pre-Restriction Exports ($B)<\/th>Pre % YoY<\/th>Post-Restriction Exports ($B)<\/th>Post % YoY<\/th>Potential Loss ($B)<\/th>Loss % of Pre<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Goods to US<\/td>42.0<\/td>+18.0<\/td>3.0<\/td>-43.0<\/td>21.3<\/td>50.7<\/td><\/tr>
Services to US<\/td>26.5<\/td>+12.0<\/td>1.5<\/td>+8.0<\/td>6.0<\/td>22.6<\/td><\/tr>
Total to US<\/td>68.5<\/td>+15.5<\/td>4.5<\/td>-10.0<\/td>27.3<\/td>39.9<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Notes: Pre = April\u2013September 7; Post = September 8\u201330. Losses: Goods from 70% sector declines\/exemptions; Services from NTBs. Includes $4.4 billion FII outflows. Sources: Ministry, BEA; rupee loss ~Rs. 2,402 billion.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Global Trade Overview: Balancing Goods, Services, And Broader Economy<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Goods exports: $220 billion (+2.5% YoY; pre: $215B +3%, post: $5B flat). Imports: $368 billion (+2.5%; pre: $360B, post: $8B). Services: $199.2 billion exports (+10.6%; pre: $195B +11%, post: $4.2B +5% pre-NTB), imports $101.8 billion (+3.8%), surplus $97.4 billion. Deficit: $50.6 billion (0.2% GDP, trimmed 0.5%). Rupee supports exports (4\u20135% uplift, Rs. 19,360 billion stronger) but pressures imports\/oil (Rs. 1,760\u20132,200 billion). August: Goods $35.1 billion (+6.7%), services $34.1 billion (+12%). Annual projection: $850\u2013860 billion exports, tempered by 6.5% unemployment rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Category<\/th>Goods Amount (Pre\/Post)<\/th>Goods YoY (%)<\/th>Services Amount (Pre\/Post)<\/th>Services YoY (%)<\/th>Total Amount<\/th>Key Drivers<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Exports<\/td>215 \/ 5<\/td>+3.0 \/ -43.0<\/td>195 \/ 4.2<\/td>+11.0 \/ +5.0<\/td>419.2<\/td>IT\/BPO, pharma; tariff\/NTB drags<\/td><\/tr>
Imports<\/td>360 \/ 8<\/td>+2.5 \/ +3.0<\/td>100 \/ 1.8<\/td>+4.0 \/ +4.0<\/td>469.8<\/td>Oil ($100B), machinery; consumption cliff<\/td><\/tr>
Surplus\/Deficit<\/td>-145 \/ -3<\/td>+2.5 \/ -10.0<\/td>+95 \/ +2.4<\/td>+14.0 \/ +10.0<\/td>-50.6<\/td>Services offset; GDP trim 0.5%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Sources: RBI BoP, Ministry; rupee effects noted.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US As A Strategic Partner: Tariff Dynamics And NTB Pressures<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

US share: 17\u201320% exports. Goods: $45 billion (+18% pre; post flat), imports $25 billion, surplus $20 billion (pre: $19.5B, post: $0.5B). Services: $28 billion exports (pre: $26.5B +12%, post: $1.5B; $195 billion FY25 projection, -7.1% from taxes), imports $12 billion, surplus $16 billion. Combined: $36 billion (pre: $34.5B, post: $1.5B). Rupee +5% revenue boost (Rs. 3,168 billion) but curtails imports 1\u20132%. NTBs threaten 60% IT share; exemptions disadvantage vs. Vietnam (15\u201340% diversion). Diversification: EU +12%, UAE services +20%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Category<\/th>Global Total<\/th>To\/From US (Goods, Pre\/Post)<\/th>To\/From US (Services, Pre\/Post)<\/th>US Share (%)<\/th>Notes<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Exports<\/td>419.2<\/td>42 \/ 3<\/td>26.5 \/ 1.5<\/td>17.3<\/td>Depreciation aid; $27.3B loss risk<\/td><\/tr>
Imports<\/td>469.8<\/td>24 \/ 1<\/td>11.5 \/ 0.5<\/td>7.9<\/td>Cost inflation; MSME closures<\/td><\/tr>
Surplus\/Deficit<\/td>-50.6<\/td>+18 \/ +2<\/td>+15 \/ +1<\/td>N\/A<\/td>Surplus erodes; unemployment +1\u20132%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Sources: Ministry, RBI, BEA, USTR.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic And Employment Landscape: Navigating Tariff Shocks, Gig Economy, And Social Vulnerabilities<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

India’s unemployment rate is calculated via the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) by MoSPI, using Usual Status (principal + subsidiary activity over the year) and Current Weekly Status (activity in the reference week). The rate is (unemployed \/ labour force) \u00d7 100, where labour force includes employed (working \u22651 hour\/week or major time\/year) and those seeking work. CMIE provides alternative estimates, often higher due to stricter criteria. Total employment includes all forms; permanent (formal, regular wage with benefits) is ~10\u201312% of total; gig (platform\/informal freelance) is a subset of non-permanent, growing rapidly but lacking stability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From 2014\u20132025, total employment rose from 47 crore to 66 crore, driven by services (IT +12%) and gig growth (from ~4 million in 2014 to 12.7 million in 2025). However, growth masks informal dominance (~89% workforce), with tariffs exacerbating urban\/youth distress (~23%). Official PLFS unemployment averaged 4\u20136%, but blended PLFS\/CMIE data shows higher structural rates (e.g., 4.2% in 2024, rising to 6.5% in 2025). Focusing on permanent jobs, unemployment appears elevated as only ~10% qualify as “employed,” highlighting underemployment. Gig absorbs labor but inflates precarious roles. In permanent structure, government jobs hold ~40% share (central\/state\/PSUs ~2.5\u20133 crore), private ~60% (~3.5\u20134 crore), stable over the period per EPFO\/RBI data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Year<\/th>Total Employed (Crore)<\/th>Permanent Formal (Crore)<\/th>Non-Permanent (Crore)<\/th>Gig (Million)<\/th>Unemployment Rate (%)<\/th>YoY Change Total (%)<\/th>YoY Change Permanent (%)<\/th>YoY Change Gig (%)<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
2014<\/td>47<\/td>4.7<\/td>42.3<\/td>4<\/td>5.0<\/td>–<\/td>–<\/td>–<\/td><\/tr>
2015<\/td>48<\/td>4.8<\/td>43.2<\/td>4.5<\/td>5.0<\/td>+2.1<\/td>+2.1<\/td>+12.5<\/td><\/tr>
2016<\/td>49<\/td>4.9<\/td>44.1<\/td>5<\/td>5.0<\/td>+2.1<\/td>+2.1<\/td>+11.1<\/td><\/tr>
2017<\/td>50<\/td>5.0<\/td>45.0<\/td>5.3<\/td>6.0<\/td>+2.0<\/td>+2.0<\/td>+6.0<\/td><\/tr>
2018<\/td>51<\/td>5.1<\/td>45.9<\/td>5.4<\/td>5.0<\/td>+2.0<\/td>+2.0<\/td>+1.9<\/td><\/tr>
2019<\/td>52<\/td>5.2<\/td>46.8<\/td>6.8<\/td>4.0<\/td>+2.0<\/td>+2.0<\/td>+25.9<\/td><\/tr>
2020<\/td>53<\/td>5.3<\/td>47.7<\/td>7.7<\/td>8.0<\/td>+1.9<\/td>+1.9<\/td>+13.2<\/td><\/tr>
2021<\/td>55<\/td>5.5<\/td>49.5<\/td>8.7<\/td>6.0<\/td>+3.8<\/td>+3.8<\/td>+13.0<\/td><\/tr>
2022<\/td>57<\/td>5.7<\/td>51.3<\/td>9.9<\/td>7.3<\/td>+3.6<\/td>+3.6<\/td>+13.8<\/td><\/tr>
2023<\/td>59<\/td>5.9<\/td>53.1<\/td>11.2<\/td>8.0<\/td>+3.5<\/td>+3.5<\/td>+13.1<\/td><\/tr>
2024<\/td>62<\/td>6.2<\/td>55.8<\/td>12.0<\/td>4.2<\/td>+5.1<\/td>+5.1<\/td>+7.1<\/td><\/tr>
2025<\/td>66<\/td>6.3<\/td>59.7<\/td>12.7<\/td>6.5<\/td>+6.5<\/td>+1.6<\/td>+5.8<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Notes: Unemployment blends PLFS\/CMIE; permanent ~10\u201312% share, govt 40%\/private 60%. Gig from NITI Aayog. Comparative analysis: Total grew 40%, permanent 34%, gig 218%. UR peaked at 8% in 2020\/2023, rising with tariffs. Sources: PLFS, CMIE, NITI Aayog, ILO.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Disguised unemployment persists in agriculture (25\u201335%), manufacturing (5\u201310%), and services (10\u201315%), averaging 15\u201318% of workforce, fully counted as employed in data (100% for permanent\/gig), understating true rates by 15\u201320%.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Year<\/th>Disguised in Agriculture (%)<\/th>Disguised in Manufacturing (%)<\/th>Disguised in Services (%)<\/th>Total Disguised (% of Workforce)<\/th>YoY Change Total (%)<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
2014<\/td>30<\/td>10<\/td>15<\/td>18<\/td>–<\/td><\/tr>
2015<\/td>30<\/td>10<\/td>15<\/td>18<\/td>0<\/td><\/tr>
2016<\/td>29<\/td>9<\/td>14<\/td>17<\/td>-5.6<\/td><\/tr>
2017<\/td>29<\/td>9<\/td>14<\/td>17<\/td>0<\/td><\/tr>
2018<\/td>28<\/td>9<\/td>14<\/td>16<\/td>-5.9<\/td><\/tr>
2019<\/td>28<\/td>8<\/td>13<\/td>16<\/td>0<\/td><\/tr>
2020<\/td>30<\/td>10<\/td>15<\/td>18<\/td>+12.5<\/td><\/tr>
2021<\/td>30<\/td>10<\/td>15<\/td>18<\/td>0<\/td><\/tr>
2022<\/td>31<\/td>10<\/td>15<\/td>18<\/td>0<\/td><\/tr>
2023<\/td>32<\/td>10<\/td>15<\/td>19<\/td>+5.6<\/td><\/tr>
2024<\/td>31<\/td>9<\/td>14<\/td>18<\/td>-5.3<\/td><\/tr>
2025<\/td>30<\/td>9<\/td>14<\/td>17<\/td>-5.6<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Notes: Weighted by sectoral shares. Agriculture drove 70\u201380% of total. Sources: Economic Survey, ILO.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Social Indicators: Poverty, Hunger, And Inequality<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poverty has declined in india recently. However, ration dependency remains high at ~81 crore (56% of population in 2025), indicating vulnerability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hunger, per GHI, improved from 28.2 in 2014 to 27.3 in 2024 (serious level), ranking 105th in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inequality, measured by Gini index, hovered around 33-35, with wealth Gini at ~82 in 2024, indicating rising top-end concentration (top 1% own 58% wealth).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Per Capita Income Trends And Comparisons<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

India’s PCI rose from ~$1,560 in 2014 to ~$2,880 in 2025 (nominal), but lags behind China ($12,500), Japan ($34,000), Germany ($53,000), US ($80,000). Neighbors: Bangladesh ($2,690), Pakistan ($1,500), Sri Lanka ($3,800), Nepal ($1,400), Bhutan ($3,500).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Year<\/th>India PCI ($)<\/th>China<\/th>Japan<\/th>US<\/th>Germany<\/th>Bangladesh<\/th>Pakistan<\/th>Sri Lanka<\/th>Nepal<\/th>Bhutan<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
2014<\/td>1560<\/td>7670<\/td>48500<\/td>55000<\/td>48000<\/td>1080<\/td>1300<\/td>3800<\/td>760<\/td>2600<\/td><\/tr>
2015<\/td>1600<\/td>8100<\/td>44000<\/td>57000<\/td>42000<\/td>1200<\/td>1400<\/td>3900<\/td>800<\/td>2700<\/td><\/tr>
2016<\/td>1700<\/td>8100<\/td>39000<\/td>58000<\/td>42000<\/td>1400<\/td>1500<\/td>3900<\/td>800<\/td>2800<\/td><\/tr>
2017<\/td>2000<\/td>8800<\/td>38000<\/td>60000<\/td>44000<\/td>1600<\/td>1600<\/td>4100<\/td>900<\/td>3000<\/td><\/tr>
2018<\/td>2000<\/td>9900<\/td>39000<\/td>63000<\/td>48000<\/td>1700<\/td>1500<\/td>4100<\/td>1000<\/td>3200<\/td><\/tr>
2019<\/td>2100<\/td>10200<\/td>40000<\/td>66000<\/td>47000<\/td>1900<\/td>1300<\/td>3700<\/td>1100<\/td>3400<\/td><\/tr>
2020<\/td>1900<\/td>10500<\/td>40000<\/td>64000<\/td>47000<\/td>2000<\/td>1200<\/td>3700<\/td>1100<\/td>3000<\/td><\/tr>
2021<\/td>2200<\/td>12500<\/td>39000<\/td>70000<\/td>51000<\/td>2200<\/td>1500<\/td>3700<\/td>1200<\/td>3500<\/td><\/tr>
2022<\/td>2400<\/td>12700<\/td>34000<\/td>76000<\/td>49000<\/td>2600<\/td>1600<\/td>3400<\/td>1300<\/td>3600<\/td><\/tr>
2023<\/td>2500<\/td>12600<\/td>34000<\/td>80000<\/td>53000<\/td>2700<\/td>1400<\/td>3600<\/td>1300<\/td>3700<\/td><\/tr>
2024<\/td>2400<\/td>12500<\/td>34000<\/td>81000<\/td>53000<\/td>2700<\/td>1500<\/td>3800<\/td>1400<\/td>3700<\/td><\/tr>
2025<\/td>2880<\/td>13000<\/td>35000<\/td>83000<\/td>54000<\/td>2690<\/td>1500<\/td>3800<\/td>1400<\/td>3500<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Notes: Nominal USD. Sources: IMF, World Bank.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stock Market Fiasco: Tariff-Induced Volatility<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tariffs caused an 8\u201310% August crash ($500\u2013700 billion loss), with $4.4 billion FII outflows vs. 2024 inflows. Nifty 50: -0.7% YTD (Q3 -1.8%), Sensex -0.2% (-1.5% Q3). Midcaps -4.0%, Bank Nifty -2.5%. Exemptions fuel fears, projecting full-year -2.0% Nifty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Index<\/th>2024 Return (%)<\/th>2025 YTD (%)<\/th>Key Impact<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Nifty 50<\/td>+11.9<\/td>-0.7<\/td>-2.5% post-tariff; rival diversion<\/td><\/tr>
BSE Sensex<\/td>+12.4<\/td>-0.2<\/td>Flat after 0.9% weekly losses<\/td><\/tr>
Nifty Midcap<\/td>+16.7<\/td>-4.0<\/td>11% volatility; SME export hits<\/td><\/tr>
Bank Nifty<\/td>+9.4<\/td>-2.5<\/td>Trade finance slowdown<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Sources: BSE, NSE; August 28 drop -0.85%.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sectoral Insights And External Pressures<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pharma ($18\u201320B +10%, partial exempt), IT\/BPO ($140B +12%, NTB-vulnerable). Imports: Oil $100B. US: Gems\/IT pre-surge, steel\/autos -25% post. Rupee hedges tariffs but NTBs loom; $5\u20137B rushed shipments. Geopolitics offset by ASEAN pivots; digital shifts buffer employment, though gig precarity rises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

India-China Bilateral Trade: Historical Context And Recent Trends<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

China goods deficit: $101B (2024), services surplus $0.5B. Cumulative April\u2013September 2025: Exports $7.8B (+12%), imports $60.5B (+8.5%), deficit $52.7B (Rs. 4,638B). Rupee aids exports (+2\u20133%), inflates imports (Rs. 440B).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Year<\/th>Goods Exp.<\/th>Goods Imp.<\/th>Goods Bal.<\/th>Serv. Exp.<\/th>Serv. Imp.<\/th>Serv. Bal.<\/th>Total Bal.<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
2014<\/td>11.3<\/td>60.4<\/td>-49.1<\/td>1.2<\/td>1.0<\/td>+0.2<\/td>-48.9<\/td><\/tr>
2015<\/td>9.0<\/td>60.4<\/td>-51.4<\/td>1.1<\/td>0.9<\/td>+0.2<\/td>-51.2<\/td><\/tr>
2016<\/td>8.0<\/td>55.4<\/td>-47.4<\/td>1.0<\/td>0.8<\/td>+0.2<\/td>-47.2<\/td><\/tr>
2017<\/td>8.3<\/td>59.3<\/td>-51.0<\/td>1.2<\/td>1.0<\/td>+0.2<\/td>-50.8<\/td><\/tr>
2018<\/td>16.7<\/td>70.3<\/td>-53.6<\/td>1.4<\/td>1.1<\/td>+0.3<\/td>-53.3<\/td><\/tr>
2019<\/td>16.7<\/td>70.8<\/td>-54.1<\/td>1.5<\/td>1.2<\/td>+0.3<\/td>-53.8<\/td><\/tr>
2020<\/td>21.2<\/td>65.3<\/td>-44.1<\/td>1.6<\/td>1.3<\/td>+0.3<\/td>-43.8<\/td><\/tr>
2021<\/td>21.3<\/td>97.5<\/td>-76.2<\/td>1.7<\/td>1.3<\/td>+0.4<\/td>-75.8<\/td><\/tr>
2022<\/td>17.8<\/td>101.7<\/td>-83.9<\/td>1.8<\/td>1.4<\/td>+0.4<\/td>-83.5<\/td><\/tr>
2023<\/td>16.7<\/td>101.7<\/td>-85.0<\/td>1.9<\/td>1.5<\/td>+0.4<\/td>-84.6<\/td><\/tr>
2024<\/td>17.0<\/td>118.0<\/td>-101.0<\/td>2.0<\/td>1.5<\/td>+0.5<\/td>-100.5<\/td><\/tr>
2025*<\/td>17.5<\/td>123.0<\/td>-105.5<\/td>2.1<\/td>1.6<\/td>+0.5<\/td>-105.0<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

*2025 projected; sources: Ministry, UN COMTRADE, RBI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Category<\/th>Goods<\/th>Services<\/th>Total<\/th>YoY (%)<\/th>Notes<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Exports<\/td>7.2<\/td>0.6<\/td>7.8<\/td>+12.0<\/td>Pharma; rupee +2\u20133%<\/td><\/tr>
Imports<\/td>60.0<\/td>0.5<\/td>60.5<\/td>+8.5<\/td>Electronics; Rs. 440B inflation<\/td><\/tr>
Surplus\/Deficit<\/td>-52.8<\/td>+0.1<\/td>-52.7<\/td>N\/A<\/td>INR Rs. 4,638B<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Sources: Ministry, RBI.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2025-26 Impacts And Projections As Per Analytics Wing Of Sovereign P4LO<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

(i) From 6.3-6.5% baseline (World Bank\/OECD), drags total 2.5-4 pp,<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

(ii) Projected GDP Growth For 2025-26: 2.5-4% GDP of India in 2025-26, risks -38.46% contraction (from 6.5% to 4%) by 2026 if unchecked.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See 2025-26 Impact And Projection<\/a><\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Outlook: Resilience Through Adaptation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FY26 exports >$850 billion, deficit <$100 billion, but tariffs\/NTBs limit growth to 6.5\u20137%, with 6.5% unemployment and -1.5% market returns amid gig-driven “growth.” US ties ($110B+) stable in renewables; negotiations for exemptions\/NTBs. China deficits persist; pivot to ASEAN\/Latin America. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Strategy: Export promotion, formal job creation, gig upskilling with benefits, substitution\u2014transforming shocks into quality diversified growth, while addressing persistent poverty and inequality.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As of September 17, 2025, the provisional data from the Ministry of Commerce, RBI, US Census Bureau, and BEA indicate cumulative US-bound exports of india at $73 billion (goods $45 billion, services $28 billion) and imports at $37 billion, yielding … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-186","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-indian-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/odrindia.in\/economy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/186","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/odrindia.in\/economy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/odrindia.in\/economy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/odrindia.in\/economy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/odrindia.in\/economy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=186"}],"version-history":[{"count":25,"href":"https:\/\/odrindia.in\/economy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/186\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":241,"href":"https:\/\/odrindia.in\/economy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/186\/revisions\/241"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/odrindia.in\/economy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=186"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/odrindia.in\/economy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=186"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/odrindia.in\/economy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=186"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}